Nvidia's Spectacular Growth Raises Questions About Stock's Hype

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ICARO Media Group
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22/08/2024 20h29

Nvidia, one of the most prominent players in the stock market, is set to release its latest quarterly results next week, leaving investors curious about the future of the company's stock. The tech giant has capitalized on the growing enthusiasm around artificial intelligence (AI), driving its market value above $3 trillion. With a surge in real money investments and increasing demand for its chips to train AI models, Nvidia has undeniably become a significant force in the industry.

Analysts are expecting Nvidia to report an impressive revenue of $28.65 billion for the spring quarter, showcasing an astounding 112% growth compared to the previous year. In stark contrast, S&P 500 companies are projected to deliver only a 5% revenue increase for the same period, according to FactSet. Such remarkable growth, however, has sparked concerns among critics who believe that investor optimism may have reached excessive levels.

In the first half of the year, Nvidia's stock witnessed an extraordinary 150% surge, propelling its trading value to over 100 times the company's earnings over the past 12 months. This valuation is significantly higher than historical trends and exceeds that of the broader S&P 500 market. Additionally, the remarkable performance of Nvidia's stock contributed to nearly 30% of the S&P 500's total return, despite the company accounting for only 0.2% of the index's membership.

The consequences of Nvidia's substantial market presence became apparent during the summer, as the company experienced a 27% decline from its peak in late June to early August. This drop, along with concerns about overvaluation in the tech sector, led to an overall 10% decline in the S&P 500 from its all-time high. On certain days, despite other stocks on Wall Street experiencing growth, the declines in influential Big Tech stocks like Nvidia overwhelmed any positive movements.

The recent market correction served to mitigate some of the market's excesses as traders reevaluated their positions in Nvidia and other prominent tech stocks. Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, noted that the earnings report from Nvidia would provide insight into whether any excess remains or if the market has further adjusted itself.

However, it should be noted that a strong performance by Nvidia in its upcoming earnings report does not guarantee an immediate rally for the company's stock. As seen with Alphabet, the parent company of Google, their stock dropped despite exceeding analysts' projections for both profit and revenue during the previous reporting season. This highlights the challenges faced by companies in maintaining consistent stock growth even with positive financial results.

As anticipation builds for Nvidia's earnings report, Bank of America strategists, led by Ohsung Kwon, suggest that the market's focus is shifting from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent speech on interest rates to Nvidia's crucial report. Investors eagerly await the insights it will provide and whether Nvidia's stock can continue its momentum or if concerns of overvaluation will restrain its growth.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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