Nvidia's Resilience: Q2 Earnings Drop Offset by Strong AI Growth Potential

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28/09/2024 23h18

### Nvidia Rebounds After Q2 Earnings Drop, Shows Strong AI Growth Potential

Nvidia (NVDA), the third most valuable stock in the world, encountered a substantial decline in market capitalization after its Q2 earnings release in late August. Despite this setback, the stock demonstrated resilience, rising by 5% over the past week. Having briefly crossed the $3 trillion market cap earlier this year, investors are now keenly observing Nvidia's future trajectory. Analysts remain optimistic about NVDA shares, citing the company's dominance in artificial intelligence (AI) and its significant growth potential.

Nvidia’s long-term growth trajectory remains promising, driven by its leadership in AI technology. The company boasts top-tier clients such as Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon, all of whom are expanding their AI initiatives. Beyond these prominent partnerships, Nvidia continues to penetrate various industries globally, which bolsters confidence in its stock. Enterprises from diverse sectors are increasingly seeking to leverage AI to enhance their operations, with many turning to Nvidia for comprehensive AI solutions. Nvidia's ability to offer a complete end-to-end AI infrastructure sets it apart from its competitors.

CEO Jensen Huang's unwavering focus on transforming Nvidia into an AI-centric data center powerhouse is a significant factor behind the company's sustained premium pricing and margin growth. Critics argue that Nvidia's exceptional revenue and margin growth might not be sustainable, but the company’s recent performance paints a different picture. For fiscal 2024, Nvidia reported a staggering 217% increase in data center revenues. Although this growth is expected to moderate to around 130% in 2025, it remains an impressive figure given the high baseline set in FY2024.

Nvidia posted robust Q2 results on August 28, 2024, driven by accelerated computing and the momentum of generative AI. Adjusted earnings of $0.68 per share surpassed the consensus estimate of $0.65 and were significantly higher than the previous year's figure of $0.27 per share. Year-over-year revenue growth also impressed, reaching 122% with $30.04 billion for the quarter ending July 31. Data center revenues, a critical segment for Nvidia, surged by 154% to $26.3 billion. Despite this strong performance, some investors had apparently anticipated even higher numbers, leading to a decline in the stock price post-earnings. By September 6, shares had bottomed out just above the $100 mark but have since shown signs of recovery.

Insider selling by CEO Jensen Huang put additional pressure on NVDA shares over recent months. Huang sold NVDA shares across several transactions from June to September under a predetermined trading plan enacted in March. The plan allows for the sale of up to six million shares by the end of Q1 2025, with Huang having sold over $700 million worth of stock. Despite these sales, Huang remains Nvidia's largest individual shareholder, holding approximately 859 million shares through various trusts and partnerships, equivalent to a 3.5% stake in the company.

Despite investor concerns about Nvidia's rapid stock run-up and potential slowing growth, the current valuation does not appear excessively high. Trading at about a 43x forward P/E ratio for FY2025, Nvidia is actually valued below its closest peers, such as Advanced Micro Devices with a 46.8x forward P/E. This valuation is also 10% lower than Nvidia's five-year average forward P/E. With Nvidia's consistent outperformance and strong growth potential, the current valuation seems reasonable. Any future dips in the stock price might offer attractive buying opportunities considering Nvidia's dominant position in the booming AI market.

Analysts are largely bullish on Nvidia, with 39 Buy ratings and three Hold ratings in the past three months. The consensus TipRanks rating for the stock is a Strong Buy, with an average target price of $152.44, suggesting a potential upside of about 26% over the next year.

In conclusion, despite recent market fluctuations, Nvidia remains a compelling long-term investment. The company’s shares have nearly tripled over the past year, far outpacing the Nasdaq 100 index. While short-term economic and political uncertainties could keep the stock range-bound, any dips should be viewed as buying opportunities given Nvidia's substantial growth potential in the AI sector.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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