### NFL Week 5 Expert Picks: Betting Struggles and Projections

The opening month of the 2024 NFL season has closed, yet it has not been a smooth ride for bettors. The experts from CBS Sports' picks page—including this author—are struggling, with the sportsbooks prevailing thus far. Part of the issue lies in the games' nail-biting nature: Through Week 4, 39 games have been decided by eight points or fewer, marking the tightest first month in league history. Moving into Week 5, we aim to reverse our fortunes, kicking off with five key picks.

Looking at New England, they started with a surprising win against Cincinnati in Week 1, but their performance has since declined. The offensive line is severely weakened, missing core players like center David Andrews, who is out for the season, and possibly rookie tackle Caedan Wallace. This sets the stage for a tough matchup against Miami. While the Dolphins struggled on offense against Tennessee with Tyler Huntley at quarterback, they lead the league in third-down defense. New England's poor third-down performance could tilt the game in Miami’s favor.

Projected score: Dolphins 17, Patriots 13
The pick: Dolphins +1

The Chicago Bears look increasingly cohesive on offense, buoyed by Caleb Williams' strong showings. Williams posted a season-best passer rating of 106.6 against the Rams in Week 4. They face a Carolina Panthers squad conceding a league-high 32.3 points per game. Despite Andy Dalton's attempts to stabilize the Panthers' offense, the Bears' defense ranks highly in yard constraints and turnovers. Chicago’s record at Soldier Field further supports confidence in their ability to cover the spread.

Projected score: Bears 27, Panthers 20
The pick: Bears -3.5

In another key matchup, Jordan Love showed resilience by nearly leading the Packers to a comeback against the Vikings. Up next, they play an underperforming Rams defense that ranks at the bottom in several categories, including scoring and yardage. This game also presents an opportunity for running back Josh Jacobs to exploit the Rams’ porous run defense.

Projected score: Packers 30, Rams 20
The pick: Packers -3.5

For the Jacksonville Jaguars, Week 5 is critical. They are 0-4 but face an injury-ridden Colts team that is struggling defensively. Historically, Jacksonville has dominated this matchup at home, crucial as the team prepares to depart for a two-week stint in London. A win here could be vital for head coach Doug Pederson’s future with the team.

Projected score: Jaguars 27, Colts 23
The pick: Jaguars -2.5

The Denver Broncos' defense could decisively impact their game against the struggling Las Vegas Raiders. Denver ranks among the league's best in both points and yards allowed. With the Raiders' offense faltering, Denver's defensive prowess should help them cover the spread.

Projected score: Broncos 21, Raiders 16
The pick: Broncos -2.5

Additional picks round out Week 5 predictions, including the Buccaneers over the Falcons (+1.5), Jets over the Vikings (+2.5), Ravens over the Bengals (-2.5), Bills over the Texans (-1), Browns over the Commanders (+3.5), Cardinals covering against the 49ers (+7.5), Seahawks over the Giants (-6.5), Steelers over the Cowboys (-2.5), and Saints covering the spread against the Chiefs (+4.5).

As Week 5 kicks off, the focus is on shifting momentum and improving expert betting records while navigating an unpredictable NFL landscape.