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NASA's James Webb Space Telescope has recently highlighted an increase in the likelihood of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting the Moon. According to updated data, the probability of the asteroid striking the lunar surface has risen from 3.8% to 4.3%. This marginal rise, while notable, is not expected to significantly affect the Moon's orbit.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was initially discovered in December 2024 and quickly drew attention due to its potential threat to Earth. Though early assessments focused on a small chance of an Earth impact, subsequent data confirmed no danger to our planet. However, the asteroid's proximity to the Moon in December 2032 has kept it under close surveillance by planetary defense experts.

Tracking this distant asteroid is challenging for ground-based telescopes, making NASA's James Webb Space Telescope indispensable. Equipped with an advanced Near-Infrared Camera, Webb has refined our understanding of 2024 YR4’s trajectory. These observations have only slightly increased the chance of a lunar collision, underlining the need for ongoing monitoring.

Before Webb's detailed observations, predicting the asteroid’s path was problematic. Early estimates included Earth as a potential impact site, but refined data shifted concerns to a possible lunar impact. With improved accuracy from Webb’s infrared imaging, NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies has adjusted the impact probability. Though the rise is slight, it exemplifies the evolving nature and complexity of asteroid tracking.

The enhanced observational capabilities of the Webb Telescope play a crucial role in planetary defense. While the likelihood of a significant asteroid impact remains low, constant monitoring ensures readiness for potential threats. NASA's improved ability to detect and track such objects is pivotal in safeguarding Earth and its celestial neighbor.

NASA plans to continue observing asteroid 2024 YR4 as it approaches closer in 2028, which will provide additional data for trajectory predictions. Despite the minor increased likelihood of a lunar impact in 2032, the expected consequences are minimal due to the Moon's lack of an atmosphere and the asteroid's modest size. Experts remain vigilant in tracking near-Earth objects to avert significant threats, with Webb's contributions being instrumental in this ongoing effort.