In the aftermath of the devastating terrorist attack on a concert hall in the Moscow suburbs, suspicions have fallen on the Afghanistan-based ISIS affiliate, ISIS-Khorasan or ISIS-K. While ISIS claimed responsibility and attributed the attack to a newly mentioned Russian wing, the United States had previously warned about intelligence indicating that ISIS-K was planning attacks in Russia. Russian officials also reported thwarting another ISIS-K plot targeting a synagogue in Moscow.

The four suspects presented before a judge in relation to the concert hall attack were identified as nationals of Tajikistan, a country bordering Afghanistan. This raises concerns as many of ISIS-K's fighters are believed to be Tajik nationals. Despite accusations from Moscow against Ukraine, the link between the concert hall attack and ISIS' Afghan franchise has not been established. However, it has reignited concerns about Afghanistan becoming a haven for terrorist groups.

During the decades-long presence of U.S. and allied forces in Afghanistan, an array of terrorist groups operated in the country. Since the Taliban regained power three years ago, many of these militant groups have ceased operations. However, ISIS-K has continued to operate and challenge the Taliban's authority through indiscriminate violence. The Taliban's goal was to topple Afghanistan's U.S.-backed government and reimpose its strict interpretation of Islamic principles, which it has successfully achieved.

In contrast, ISIS-K is considered one of the more menacing branches of the global ISIS network. Established in 2015 along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, ISIS-K aims to establish an Islamic caliphate in the region and expand its terrorism activities worldwide. Over the past few years, ISIS-K has conducted high-profile attacks against Taliban officials and civilians in Afghanistan, including a recent suicide attack in Kandahar province targeting Taliban workers.

United Nations data from last year revealed that ISIS-K had claimed responsibility for over 190 suicide bombings in major cities, resulting in more than 1,300 casualties. While the Taliban has demonstrated some determination in combating ISIS-K within Afghanistan, analysts and UN envoys doubt their ability to control the group's activities outside the country. The UN Security Council monitoring team noted that the Taliban's efforts appear to be more focused on the internal threat posed by ISIS-K rather than its external operations.

The Taliban's promise to prevent terror groups from using Afghanistan as a base was challenged just a year after assuming power. During the chaotic U.S. withdrawal, thousands of prisoners, including ISIS-K fighters, were freed by the Taliban, enabling them to access weapons and move freely. As a result, there have been indications of ISIS-K's growing capacity to project threats beyond Afghanistan's borders.

The recent raising of France's national security threat level after thwarting two attempted ISIS-K attacks underscores the group's global reach. Experts warn that the extent of ISIS-K's external targeting capacity will depend on various factors, including assistance from the parent Islamic State, financing, recruitment, and international countermeasures.

Amid these concerns, the importance of intelligence-based screening for individuals entering the United States as a countermeasure against the ongoing ISIS-K threat is emphasized. However, there are worries about the availability of reliable information for informed vetting decisions following the withdrawal of intelligence capabilities due to the U.S. withdrawals from Afghanistan and Iraq.

ISIS-K's training camps and strongholds are primarily located in Afghanistan's northern, northeastern, and eastern provinces, with new ones reportedly built in 2022, according to the UN's monitoring team. Despite the Taliban's claims of neutralizing the threat posed by ISIS-K, questions remain about their ability to effectively counter the group.

As the world grapples with the increasing global reach of ISIS-K, the international community is urged to address the growing threat and prevent further attacks by the Afghanistan-based militant group.