As the New York Mets return from the All-Star break with a 49-46 record and hold the third Wild Card spot in the National League, their performance in the coming days leading up to the July 30 trade deadline will play a crucial role in determining their approach. With a strong recent run of 27 wins in their last 40 games and a potent offensive lineup, the Mets have emerged as real contenders in the second half of the 2024 season.

The Mets' management, led by David Stearns, remains uncertain about their trade deadline strategy. However, unless the team suffers a catastrophic stretch, it is highly unlikely that they will become sellers. If the Mets maintain a .500 or better record in the next 11 games, they will solidify their position as buyers and be motivated to bolster their roster for the final months of the regular season and potentially the playoffs.

Heading into the trade deadline, the Mets have identified two areas of need: their bullpen and outfield. The bullpen has been hampered by season-ending injuries to Brooks Raley and Drew Smith, as well as the absence of Reed Garrett and Sean Reid-Foley. Despite a promising group of relievers in Edwin Diaz, Dedniel Nunez, Jose Butto, and Phil Maton, the Mets will likely seek additional reinforcements to fortify their relief pitching.

The outfield has also become an area of concern with Starling Marte's slow recovery from a knee injury and struggles from his replacements, DJ Stewart, Tyrone Taylor, and Jeff McNeil. Outfield help will be a priority for the Mets as they aim to strengthen their lineup for the second half of the season.

In addition to their trade deadline plans, the Mets have another reason for optimism. Kodai Senga, who has been sidelined since spring training due to a shoulder injury, is on the verge of returning. The Mets' rotation will shift to a six-man rotation upon Senga's comeback. After an impressive rookie campaign last year with a 2.98 ERA and 202 strikeouts in 166.1 innings, Senga's return could provide a significant boost to a rotation that has already shown glimpses of brilliance, led by standout Christian Scott.

However, the Mets will also need to manage Scott's workload in his first full season in the majors. With 85.2 innings pitched so far this year and a typical year-over-year increase of 35-40 innings, the Mets may consider shutting him down before the end of the regular season to prevent any potential fatigue or injury.

Meanwhile, the future of Pete Alonso with the Mets remains uncertain. While it is likely that he will stay with the team beyond the trade deadline, his performance in the second half will be closely observed. Coming off a relatively down 2023 season and experiencing his worst statistical year to date with a .772 OPS, Alonso's future contract negotiations will heavily depend on his performance down the stretch. A strong finish to the season could increase his chances of securing a lucrative deal, perhaps in the range of $200 million or more, while a lackluster performance may affect his value in the market.

As the Mets embark on a pivotal 11-game stretch leading up to the trade deadline, their ability to maintain their competitiveness and address their areas of need will be critical. The success of their trade deadline strategy, the return of Kodai Senga, and the performance of Pete Alonso will all factor into the Mets' aspirations for the remainder of the 2024 season.