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In a season that radiated magic for the New York Mets, the quick shift to the offseason presents some significant decisions. None loom larger than the future of their star first baseman Pete Alonso, who is poised to be one of the hottest commodities on the free-agent market.

Alonso's six-year tenure with the Mets has been nothing short of impressive, as he has smashed 226 home runs—ranking second in the majors during this period, trailing only Aaron Judge's 232. His consistency as a power hitter since his debut in 2019 is underscored by a 134 OPS+ and a career OPS of .854. Retaining him not only brings the promise of a potential franchise legend but also the possibility of Alonso breaking the Mets' all-time home run record of 252, currently held by Darryl Strawberry.

Significantly boosting his value, Alonso delivered one of the most memorable moments in Mets' postseason history with a crucial three-run homer in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series against the Milwaukee Brewers. This feat, combined with his impressive track record, makes the prospect of renewing his contract emotionally compelling. However, the Mets must weigh these emotions against the practical considerations of Alonso's future performance, especially as he approaches 30.

In June 2023, Alonso and his former representatives declined a seven-year extension worth $158 million, which would have made him the sixth-highest paid first baseman in baseball at an average of $22.75 million per season. Opting instead to bet on himself, Alonso had a solid but statistically subdued 2024 season, with an OPS of .788 and 34 home runs—his lowest full-season home run tally outside the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.

However, Alonso's postseason performance was stellar, boasting a .999 OPS and two significant home runs, including the game-winner in the NL Wild Card round. This resurgence undoubtedly bolstered his market value ahead of free agency.

Current projections for Alonso's next contract span a broad range. Sportstrac suggests a six-year deal valued at nearly $30 million per season and $174 million overall, while The Athletic projects a more modest seven-year deal worth $189 million, averaging $27 million annually. By turning down the earlier offer, Alonso appears to have made a shrewd decision.

A deal akin to Freddie Freeman's six-year, $162 million contract seems unlikely given mix Alonso’s age of nearly 30 and Freeman’s historically superior performance. Nonetheless, Alonso's rare power-hitting talent remains a significant draw. Despite a down year by his standards, Alonso's capacity to rebound to his career norms remains a strong possibility, making him an attractive target for teams during the offseason.