Maryland Poll Shows Republican Larry Hogan Leads Democratic Rivals in Senate Race

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ICARO Media Group
Politics
20/03/2024 19h28

S. Senate. Despite Hogan's popularity and name recognition, the poll also indicates that Maryland voters prefer Democratic control of the Senate by a significant margin.

Hogan's unexpected entry into the race has disrupted what was initially seen as a competition between Democratic candidates Rep. David Trone and Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks. The poll reveals that if the general election were held today, Hogan would secure 49 percent of the vote against Trone's 37 percent, and 50 percent against Alsobrooks' 36 percent.

In the primary race, Trone currently holds a narrow lead with 34 percent of registered Democrats supporting him, while 27 percent prefer Alsobrooks. However, a substantial 39 percent of Democratic voters have not yet chosen a primary candidate, keeping the race wide open. Notably, Trone has spent over $23 million on his campaign, compared to Alsobrooks' $2 million.

The poll highlights the challenge for Democrats as they aim to exploit Hogan's cross-party appeal and build a coalition of Republicans, independents, and moderate Democrats. Moreover, a significant number of Maryland voters admit to not knowing much about either Trone or Alsobrooks.

The survey, conducted from March 5-12, with a sample of 1,004 registered Maryland voters, reveals that 55 percent of respondents prefer Democratic control of the Senate, while 35 percent lean towards Republicans. Despite this, Hogan continues to enjoy a favorable image among a clear majority of voters, with 64 percent having a positive view of him. In comparison, Trone and Alsobrooks have favorable ratings of 33 percent and 26 percent, respectively.

The contest remains fluid as the general election is months away, and Democrats have yet to unite behind a nominee. However, Hogan's strong showing in the poll suggests that he is not to be underestimated. The margin of error in the poll is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points for all voters and 4.5 points among registered Democrats.

The poll also indicates that some voters who prefer Democratic control of the Senate are still inclined to vote for Hogan. About 18 percent of respondents expressed this preference, with two-thirds identifying as Democrats, and more than half identifying as "moderate." This dynamic speaks to Hogan's ability to appeal to voters across party lines.

While some voters, like Jerome Tidwell, are undecided and seeking more information about the candidates, others, like David Bartgis, have already made up their minds to support Hogan. Bartgis, an art dealer and unaffiliated voter, trusts Hogan's bipartisan approach and views him as one of the best governors Maryland has had.

However, other Hogan supporters, such as Stephanie Sandler, have reservations about sending Hogan to the U.S. Senate, fearing he may be influenced by the Republican Party's more extreme elements. Sandler praises Hogan's bipartisan record at the state level but questions his ability to maintain that approach in Washington.

The poll underscores the challenges faced by popular governors seeking federal office, as they navigate the partisan landscape. The example of former Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen, who lost his bid for the U.S. Senate in 2018 despite high levels of popularity, serves as a cautionary tale.

As the primary race continues and the general election draws nearer, candidates will have to articulate their positions on critical issues such as abortion rights, which are of concern to Maryland voters. Hogan's personal opposition to abortion but commitment not to alter existing rights may appeal to some voters, while others, like Akelah Stroud, stress the importance of safeguarding women's rights and minority communities.

The Maryland Senate race remains in flux, with regional variations in candidate support. Trone and Alsobrooks have stronger support in the D.C. area, while Hogan maintains the lead throughout the rest of the state. Ultimately, as the candidates campaign and communicate their platforms, the political landscape could shift in favor of any of the contenders.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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