According to meteorologists, March is set to offer a taste of spring with above-average temperatures and showers to nourish our gardens. However, by mid-month, a shift towards cooler conditions may take place. Weather experts are predicting that the average temperature for March in the D.C. area will range from 3 to 5 degrees above the normal average of 47.6 degrees.

These projected temperatures would be in line with the conditions observed in the past three years. In 2020, 2021, and 2022, the average temperatures registered were 53.2, 51.2, and 50.4 degrees respectively. As for rainfall, above-normal precipitation is expected, with amounts ranging from 4 to 6 inches compared to the usual average of 3.5 inches for the month.

While snowfall is expected to be below the average of 2 inches, the possibility of brief colder periods cannot be ruled out completely. Forecast models indicate a warm and wet start to the month, with the National Weather Service predicting that almost half of the anticipated March rainfall could occur during the first week.

However, around March 15, a change towards more typical temperatures and reduced precipitation is expected. Meteorologists suggest that atmospheric patterns, often referred to using abbreviations, may produce a configuration of the jet stream that could support the shift towards cooler weather. This change in patterns could be a response to a disruption of the polar vortex, leading to potentially colder and stormier conditions in the eastern United States.

While there is low confidence in the exact outcome, models suggest a trend towards a cooler second half of the month. This would be a significant shift from the above-average temperatures experienced recently. For example, February 2024 marked the seventh-warmest February on record in Washington, with an average temperature of 44.4 degrees, 4.4 degrees higher than the normal average.

In terms of rainfall, February fell short with only 1.41 inches of rain and melted snow, creating a deficit of 1.21 inches and ranking as the 22nd-driest February on record. Weather predictions for February were slightly off, as milder-than-normal conditions were expected but ended up being even warmer than anticipated.

Looking at the start of the year as a whole, January's above-average precipitation has provided a wetter-than-normal start to 2024, despite the dry February. Temperatures throughout the year have been considerably warmer than normal; however, not as warm as the record-setting year of 2023.

As the month of March approaches, residents in the D.C. area can anticipate early springlike warmth and above-normal rainfall. However, by mid-month, a shift towards cooler temperatures may occur, bringing a change from the recent mild conditions. As always, weather patterns are subject to variations, and meteorologists will continue to monitor and update forecasts accordingly.