According to the latest monthly update from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), La Niña, the weather pattern associated with increased hurricane activity, is running slightly behind schedule but is still expected to arrive during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Current conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean indicate a neutral status, with water temperatures just slightly above average.

Although the atmosphere in the Pacific is currently in agreement with trade winds operating as usual during neutral phases, computer guidance and indications of cooler water at greater depths suggest a continued cooling trend. However, the rate of this cooling trend is not as robust as initially predicted, pushing back the expected arrival of La Niña from July to late summer or early fall.

NOAA gives a 70% chance that La Niña will arrive during this time, coinciding with the peak months of the hurricane season, September and October. This is of particular concern as the current season has already started with intensity, fueled by record ocean water temperatures in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico basins.

The effects of La Niña on the tropical trade winds generally reduce wind shear over the Atlantic basin, creating favorable conditions for tropical development. This is especially worrying considering that Colorado State University's updated hurricane forecast suggests that Hurricane Beryl's recent record-breaking nearly two-week journey through the Atlantic is a potential sign of a hyperactive season.

Even after hurricane season ends on November 1st, La Niña is expected to persist through the winter. La Niña winters typically bring a drier and milder winter to the southern half of the nation, while the northern half tends to experience cooler and wetter/snowier conditions.

While the delay in La Niña's arrival may offer some temporary relief, the potential convergence of La Niña and the already intense hurricane season raises concerns for increased hurricane activity in the coming months. It is crucial for communities along hurricane-prone coastlines to stay vigilant and prepared for potential storms as we navigate through the remainder of the season.