### Rare November Storm Could Threaten US Gulf Coast

A potential tropical storm, currently identified as Tropical Depression Eighteen, has formed in the Caribbean Sea and is expected to intensify in the next few days. According to forecasts, this storm could evolve into Tropical Storm Rafael by Monday afternoon and further escalate to hurricane status by midweek.

Rafael's anticipated path includes a crossing over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, with an impending impact on Cuba before progressing into the Gulf of Mexico. However, there remains significant uncertainty surrounding its trajectory and intensity once it enters the Gulf, leaving its ultimate impact on the US Gulf Coast undetermined.

The National Hurricane Center advises residents along the US Gulf Coast and northeastern Mexico coast to stay vigilant and monitor updates. Preliminary models suggest landfall could occur anywhere from the Florida-Alabama border to Louisiana by late weekend, but this projection may change as the storm moves through the Caribbean.

There are notable discrepancies between two primary forecast models regarding Rafael's path. One scenario shows the storm hitting western Cuba and moving northwestward, potentially affecting areas between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. The other model suggests an abrupt leftward turn in the Gulf, potentially leading to landfall in northeastern Mexico or the western Gulf Coast, or the storm dissipating altogether.

The storm's potential to enhance rainfall ahead of its arrival could increase flooding risks throughout Florida and other southeastern regions. Areas experiencing rainfall later this week or over the weekend may face heightened flood threats, particularly where drenching rain had already begun in parts of Hispaniola and Jamaica by early Monday.

This turbulent weather system is poised to bring heavy rainfall and flash flooding to regions of the western Caribbean in the coming days, threatening mudslides in the mountainous areas of Jamaica and southern Cuba. Rainfall totals are projected to be between 3 to 6 inches in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti, with Jamaica possibly seeing even higher totals.

Additionally, if Rafael achieves hurricane strength by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, strong winds and dangerous storm surges could affect parts of the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, underlining the importance of the existing hurricane and tropical storm alerts for these areas.

This year alone, five hurricanes have already made landfall along the Gulf Coast, although Rafael is not expected to rival the intensity of previous storms like Helene and Milton due to geographical interactions and hostile atmospheric conditions over the Gulf. Despite the Atlantic hurricane season drawing to a close on November 30, the unusual persistence of tropical activity remains a concern.