Houston residents can expect a shift towards sunnier weather in the coming days, accompanied by a slight increase in temperatures. However, attention is turning towards the Gulf of Mexico, where a tropical disturbance is likely to develop.

As high pressure expands over the Southern United States, rainfall chances for today are expected to decrease to around 20 percent. Showers and thunderstorms may still occur during the late morning, afternoon, and early evening hours, with accumulations of up to 1 inch in some areas. The majority of the region, though, will likely remain dry. Skies are predicted to be partly to mostly sunny, with temperatures reaching the low 90s. Winds will be light, and overnight lows are forecasted to fall into the upper 70s.

The expansive high pressure system will bring mostly sunny skies to Houston on Friday and Saturday, with temperatures reaching the low to mid-90s. It's important to note that with the summer solstice approaching, the Sun will be nearly directly overhead during midday hours, increasing the risk of sunburn. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to be slightly lower, providing some relief from the heat. Rain chances for both Friday and Saturday are minimal, at 10 percent or less.

By Sunday, the focus will shift towards the Gulf of Mexico, where a tropical disturbance is likely to form in the Bay of Campeche. The National Hurricane Center currently gives the system a 40 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next seven days. Anticipating high pressure over the southern United States, meteorologists believe the system will mainly remain in the southern Gulf of Mexico, potentially heading towards Mexico or South Texas.

Although some organization is possible, the primary threat from this tropical system is expected to be heavy rainfall. The current forecast suggests that Houston will experience manageable rainfall accumulations next week, with the potential for 3 to 5 inches along the coast and lesser amounts inland. Locations further south, like Brownsville, may see greater accumulations, but uncertainty remains.

Additionally, the Houston area may experience stronger onshore winds associated with the system, ranging from 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts. Tides could also run 1 to 2 feet higher due to a persistent onshore wind. However, these localized effects are expected to remain modest unless significant changes occur in the evolution of the tropical system.

In summary, Houston is expected to enjoy partly cloudy skies and intermittent heavy rainfall starting Sunday. The forecasted pattern should help keep temperatures around 90 degrees, slightly cooler than normal. Meteorologists will continue to monitor the situation closely and provide updates if significant changes occur in the forecast.

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