Voters in Turkey have participated in closely watched local elections, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attempting to reclaim key urban areas lost to the opposition five years ago. Held on Sunday, the elections will determine who gains control of Istanbul and Ankara, both of which Erdogan lost in 2019. These cities hold immense importance as economic hubs and winning them would provide international visibility.

Winning major cities not only signifies a significant achievement for the opposition, but it also grants access to foreign funds and establishes transnational connections with economic and political actors. For President Erdogan, a strong showing for his ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) could further strengthen his resolve to introduce a new constitution that aligns with his conservative values and potentially extends his rule beyond 2028.

Meanwhile, keeping control of Istanbul and Ankara would be a tremendous boost for the divided and demoralized opposition, as it could help them rally their supporters and regain momentum after last year's defeat in the presidential and parliamentary elections.

Initial results are expected later in the evening, as voting stations closed at 4pm in eastern Turkey and 5pm elsewhere. However, the turnout this time is uncertain due to the backdrop of a cost of living crisis. Disillusioned opposition supporters may opt to stay home, skeptical of the election's ability to bring about meaningful change. Similarly, some AK Party supporters may choose to protest the economic downturn by not participating in the polls.

In Istanbul, the incumbent mayor Ekrem Imamoglu of the Republican People's Party (CHP) faces a close race against the AK Party's candidate Murat Kurum, a former minister. Imamoglu, a popular figure, is running without the support of some parties that aided his victory in 2019. The outcome in Istanbul will have far-reaching implications on Turkey's politics, potentially propelling Imamoglu to opposition leadership and a potential presidential nomination in 2028, or allowing Erdogan to strengthen his power base and address the troubled economy and foreign affairs.

The pro-Kurdish Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) and the nationalist IYI Party are also fielding their own candidates, which could split votes away from Imamoglu. The disintegration of the six-party opposition alliance, led by CHP, following last year's failed attempt to remove Erdogan, has worked against the opposition's chances.

In Ankara, incumbent mayor Mansur Yavas is expected to retain his post, according to opinion polls. Yavas, viewed as a potential future challenger to Erdogan, is facing Turgut Altinok, the AK Party candidate and current mayor of Ankara's Kecioren district, who has struggled to generate enthusiasm among supporters.

In the mainly Kurdish-populated southeast, the DEM Party is anticipated to win several municipalities. However, it remains uncertain if they will be allowed to retain these positions, as Erdogan's government in the past has ousted pro-Kurdish mayors and replaced them with state-appointed trustees.

These local elections hold immense importance for Turkey's political landscape and will have significant implications for President Erdogan's future plans. The final results will shape the balance of power in the country's major cities and have lasting effects on both domestic and international affairs.