The tropics may have been quiet lately, but that could soon change as forecasters start monitoring a potential tropical disturbance in the Caribbean next week. With signs indicating a storm could develop, all eyes are on the Gulf of Mexico as a potential destination. While confidence levels are still low, experts believe it's time to prepare for a potential storm.

Just two days ago, an unnamed "potential tropical cyclone" caused significant rainfall of over 20 inches in Carolina Beach, N.C. Despite this isolated event, tropical activity has remained calm, surprisingly so during peak season. According to Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, the next two weeks are expected to have "normal" levels of activity.

The season kicked off with an unusual event when Beryl became the earliest Category 5 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic. After impacting the Lesser Antilles on July 1, it eventually made its way into the Gulf, hitting Houston as a Category 1 storm on July 8. Other low-intensity hurricanes like Debby and Francine have also made landfall on the Gulf Coast, bringing the total to six out of seven named storms this summer.

Despite the number of storms making landfall, the season has been statistically mild. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy, a measure of all the storms' energy, is below average. This comes as a surprise, considering the earlier predictions of an anomalously active or hyperactive season. The reasons behind this unusually quiet Atlantic season remain uncertain.

As the month of October approaches, experts typically shift their attention towards systems that tend to form more frequently in the Caribbean or Gulf. Late September and early October mark the time when the Central American Gyre (CAG), a broad region of counterclockwise spin in the mid- to upper levels of the atmosphere, becomes more pronounced. This year, the CAG is expected to strengthen due to temperature changes between the cooling eastern Pacific waters and the exceptionally warm Atlantic.

The CAG's spin can sometimes consolidate, providing the foundation for a potential hurricane. While some aspects of next week's setup are known, there are numerous questions that remain unanswered. How quickly would a system organize and move towards land? Would it have enough time to develop into a hurricane? And where would it ultimately make landfall? Computer models suggest a potential Caribbean storm being drawn north into the Gulf, but their reliability decreases as the forecast period extends.

Predicting the trajectory of CAG-generated storms is notoriously challenging. These storms are primarily influenced by the overarching spin of the CAG itself. This means that any storm, whether it forms or not, will be embedded within the CAG's atmospheric flow before eventually breaking out. This added complexity makes track forecasting particularly difficult.

With that said, the western Caribbean is currently the focal point for any potentially impactful weather systems. The National Hurricane Center gives this area a 20 percent chance of development, while the Climate Prediction Center sets the odds at over 60 percent. As we approach the weekend, these odds could increase as weather models gain a better understanding of the variables at play.

For now, all we can do is wait and watch as meteorologists closely monitor the situation. While uncertainties remain, it is crucial to remain vigilant and prepared during this active hurricane season.

(Note: This article is based on provided information and does not include any additional content.