In a series of public statements, President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have further strained their already tense relationship, causing concerns over the fate of their alliance. The latest flashpoint between the two leaders is the looming ground incursion into Gaza's southernmost city of Rafah. The situation has escalated to the point where Biden hinted at a "come to Jesus meeting" with Netanyahu, but whether this conversation will take place remains uncertain.

Biden, in an interview with MSNBC on Saturday, referred to an Israeli invasion of Rafah as a "red line." However, he swiftly seemed to backtrack on his statement, emphasizing the importance of the defense of Israel. In response, Netanyahu remained defiant, vowing to proceed with the incursion and citing the need to avoid a repeat of the past.

The conflict between the two leaders escalated further when Washington officials attempted to clarify Biden's comments. They explained that the Biden administration would support an Israeli incursion into Rafah if Israel presented a plan to prevent civilian suffering. However, with no such proposal under review yet, it remains unclear what consequences Israel could face if it proceeds without meeting this requirement.

The Biden administration's shift towards greater involvement in Israeli military operations represents a significant change in approach. Previously, US officials sought to maintain some distance from Israel's operations to avoid being seen as directly responsible for potential collateral damage in Gaza. Nevertheless, the Biden administration's desire for increased involvement coincides with a growing rift between the leaders of both countries.

According to White House deputy press secretary Olivia Dalton, Biden and Netanyahu have not spoken in almost a month. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has not visited Israel since early February and has no immediate plans to do so. As private conversations between leaders grow scarce, both Biden and Netanyahu have resorted to public statements, signaling their differing positions through the media.

Experts, such as Brian Katulis from the Middle East Institute, argue that the divide between Biden and Netanyahu has been exacerbated by domestic politics within their respective countries. They suggest that finding common ground on short-term issues, such as humanitarian aid delivery, as well as the long-term goal of establishing a Palestinian state, may be crucial to bridging the gap between the two leaders.

Steven A. Cook, a senior fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, cautions against optimism, stating that Israel's planned assault on Rafah is likely to worsen the already dire humanitarian situation in Gaza. Cook believes that the odds of achieving a two-state solution, despite Biden's support for it, are extremely low due to increased opposition among the Israeli public.

As tensions between the Biden administration and Netanyahu continue to mount, the repercussions of the impending Israeli incursion into Rafah remain uncertain. The strain on the US-Israel relationship poses challenges for both leaders as they navigate through a turbulent landscape in the Middle East.