In the upcoming primary election for U.S. Senator in California, Republican candidate Steve Garvey has emerged as the frontrunner, according to the latest UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll co-sponsored by The Times. The survey indicates a remarkable surge in support for Garvey, positioning him ahead of three prominent Democratic contenders: Representatives Adam B. Schiff, Katie Porter, and Barbara Lee.

The poll, conducted days before the March 5 primary, highlights that Garvey is favored by 27% of likely voters, while Schiff secures 25% and Porter follows with 19%. Lee, representing Oakland, garners 8% of the likely voter support. Notably, 12% of respondents opt for a different candidate, and 9% remain undecided.

Despite Garvey's current lead, the primary election's outcome still heavily favors the Democratic candidate. If the race came down to a two-way matchup between Garvey and Schiff, the poll findings suggest that Schiff, who hails from Burbank, would be the overwhelming favorite among heavily Democratic Californians. In a hypothetical general election scenario, Schiff would start with a significant advantage over Garvey, leading with 53% to 38%, while 9% of respondents remain undecided.

A potential general election contest between Schiff and Porter, who represents Irvine, would commence on an equal footing, with both candidates tied at 40% and 40% respectively. Approximately 4 in 10 voters currently remain undecided regarding this matchup, as revealed by the poll.

The fact that Garvey, a Republican candidate, has assumed a lead in a state as deeply blue as California may come as a surprise. However, this primary election proves to be an unusual one. With Porter and Schiff commanding major roles within the Democratic Party, and Lee enjoying popularity among the left, the contest has resulted in a division of Democratic votes in the state, favoring Garvey's rise.

Initial polls failed to showcase Garvey's potential, but recent surveys affirm a surge in his popularity as he grows better known, particularly among Republicans. Despite a relatively modest campaign budget of $1.4 million as of mid-February, compared to the substantial funds raised by Schiff and Porter, Garvey has received a boost from Schiff's own campaign. Schiff alone has spent an estimated $25 million on television advertising, predominantly framing the race as a head-to-head competition between himself and Garvey. Additionally, a group of Schiff allies has allocated approximately $10 million towards a similar effort.

This strategic move by Schiff, as explained by Times political reporter Benjamin Oreskes, aims to appeal to Republican voters, even as it alienates Democratic voters in the state. Porter, however, denounced these tactics, emphasizing the need for honest leadership instead of political games.

As Tuesday's primary approaches, another factor that may play a significant role in Garvey's favor is the expected low voter turnout. Political consultants analyzing the returns of mailed ballots anticipate a low-turnout affair, with an electorate expected to be older, whiter, and more Republican than California's overall voter population.

The primary election on March 5 will determine the two candidates who will advance to the general election, with Garvey currently poised as a strong contender alongside Schiff. The UC Berkeley poll highlights the competitive landscape of California's political scene, setting the stage for an intriguing race that will ultimately shape the future of the state's Senate representation.