Florida is preparing for potentially dangerous flooding as a significant amount of rain, equivalent to a month's worth, is expected to drench the state this week. The heavy rainfall is being fueled by tropical moisture streaming in from the Caribbean, raising concerns about flood risks across the region.

The storms currently hovering over Florida are broad and disorganized, with the National Hurricane Center predicting a low chance of them organizing into the first tropical depression of the hurricane season as they move towards the Southeast coast. Regardless of organization, the storms are set to unleash tropical downpours, posing threats of flooding and prompting flood watches for over 6 million people in southern Florida.

Forecasters expect the flood watches, which are scheduled to expire on Wednesday night, to be extended as the heavy rain persists through Friday. Some areas in southwest Florida could receive rainfall totals approaching 20 inches, with double-digit figures anticipated in other parts of the state by the end of the week.

While Florida is no stranger to heavy rains, scientists attribute this increase in extreme rainfall events to global warming caused by fossil fuel pollution. The daily downpours are further intensified by a continuous flow of tropical moisture from the Caribbean, converging over South Florida along a nearly stationary front.

Although the initial rainfall is expected to bring relief to the state, as half of Florida is currently experiencing abnormal dryness or drought conditions, the prolonged and concentrated precipitation poses an increased risk of flooding as the saturated soils and swollen waterways struggle to absorb more water.

The heaviest rainfall is projected to occur from Tuesday through Thursday night, with the southwestern Gulf Coast of Florida, stretching from Sarasota to Everglades National Park, facing the greatest risk of over 10 inches of rainfall. However, even outside these areas, bursts of intense rain could lead to flash flooding, particularly in urban or poor-drainage regions.

This week's storms are being fueled by a weather phenomenon known as the Central American gyre, an expansive and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over Central America and its surrounding waters. Although the gyre typically aids in the formation of tropical systems in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and eastern Pacific, current upper-level winds, known as wind shear, are too disruptive to allow tropical systems to form.

Meteorologists highlight that the presence of the Central American gyre marks the beginning of the rainy season in Florida. June, July, August, and September are generally the wettest months in the state, characterized by frequent surges of deep, tropical moisture and the potential impact of tropical systems, which can cause rainfall totals to skyrocket.

As Florida prepares to navigate this rainy season's onset, communities are urged to remain alert and take necessary precautions to mitigate the risks associated with heavy rainfall and flooding. Authorities will closely monitor the situation and provide updates as the week progresses.