In his remarks at the Long Island Association Regional Economic Briefing held at the Cradle of Aviation Museum in Garden City, New York, a Federal Reserve official discussed the progress and challenges in achieving the Federal Reserve's goals of maximum employment and price stability.

The official highlighted the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Long Island's economy, noting that in 2023, the region had recovered to pre-pandemic job levels. He also emphasized the global supply chain disruptions faced during the pandemic and the subsequent return to normalcy, leading to faster than anticipated economic growth.

Regarding the labor market, the official pointed out that while the unemployment rate has been below 4 percent for the past two years, signs of tightness still persist, such as elevated job vacancies and above-average wage growth.

In terms of inflation, the official mentioned that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index had decreased to about 2.5 percent in the previous year from its 40-year high of around 7 percent in mid-2022. He compared the trajectory of inflation to a journey to the moon, emphasizing the importance of a safe return to price stability.

Looking ahead, the official discussed the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) stance on monetary policy, noting that the target range for the federal funds rate was kept unchanged in January at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. He forecasted GDP growth to slow to approximately 1.5 percent this year, with the unemployment rate expected to rise modestly and peak around 4 percent.

The official anticipated inflation to continue its path towards 2 percent, with projected PCE inflation rates around 2 to 2-1/4 percent for the current year and 2 percent for the following year. He acknowledged risks to the forecast, mentioning the possibility of inflation surprising on the upside or consumer strength diminishing quicker than expected.

In conclusion, the official reaffirmed the commitment to achieving price stability and emphasized the importance of closely monitoring economic data and risks to determine the appropriate path for monetary policy moving forward.