### Dockworkers' Strike Threatens Major Disruption to US Trade and Economy

A looming dockworkers' strike threatens to close major ports along the East and Gulf coasts of the United States indefinitely. Members of the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA), numbering in the tens of thousands, are poised to walk off the job on Tuesday at 14 major ports extending from Maine to Texas. This action could result in the first mass shutdown in nearly 50 years, causing significant trade and economic disruptions as the holiday season and presidential election approach.

The trigger for the strike is a deadlock over a six-year master contract covering about 25,000 port workers involved in container and roll-on/roll-off operations. The current contract expires on Monday, and negotiations between the ILA and the US Maritime Alliance (USMX)—which represents shipping firms, port associations, and marine terminal operators—have stalled for months. Union leader Harold Daggett is demanding substantial pay increases and expressing concerns about job losses due to automation.

Under the previous agreement, starting wages ranged from $20 to $39 per hour, influenced by a worker's experience. The ILA seeks a substantial annual pay increase of $5 over the contract's six-year term, amounting to approximately a 10% raise each year. This demand is partly fueled by the spike in shipping firm profits during the COVID-19 pandemic, contrasted with stagnating worker salaries amid inflation.

The union has hinted at a broader strike involving more of its more than 85,000 members, though exact numbers remain unclear. The dispute has already sparked a formal complaint from USMX accusing the union of refusal to negotiate, urging labor regulators to mandate a return to the bargaining table.

Immediate impacts of the strike are expected to affect time-sensitive imports such as food, with significant portions of agricultural exports and key imports like bananas and chocolate at risk. Other vulnerable sectors include tin, tobacco, clothing, footwear, and European cars, which rely heavily on shipments through the Port of Baltimore.

Recent data indicates that imports surged over the summer as businesses rushed to mitigate the impending strike's impact. Experts warn that although immediate economic ramifications may be limited, prolonged disruptions would likely lead to price increases and shortages.

Economic analysts at Oxford Economics estimate the potential cost at $4.5 billion per week in lost economic growth, with over 100,000 people possibly facing temporary unemployment. Ocean freight costs may also rise, affecting both consumers and businesses dependent on timely goods deliveries.

The strike injects significant uncertainty into a slowing US economy with rising unemployment rates just six weeks before the presidential election. While the White House has opted not to intervene at this point, pressure mounts from business groups such as the US Chamber of Commerce, urging action to prevent an economic shock reminiscent of the supply chain backlogs experienced during the pandemic.

This labor dispute puts President Joe Biden in a politically precarious position, balancing between the potential economic fallout from the strike and the risk of alienating vital labor movement support with the election rapidly approaching.