Decoding Apple's Q4 Earnings: Assessing the Impact of Apple Intelligence Platform on iPhone Sales
ICARO Media Group
### Apple Q4 Earnings Report: Analysts Anticipate Impact of New Apple Intelligence Platform
Apple Inc. (AAPL) is set to release its fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday, and all eyes on Wall Street are keen to decipher whether the company's new Apple Intelligence platform is boosting iPhone sales. Unveiled on Monday through software updates to iPhone, iPad, and Mac, Apple Intelligence has been marketed extensively, particularly in relation to the iPhone.
However, the adoption of Apple Intelligence comes with limitations. Currently, it is available solely in US English, with plans to introduce localized English support in December and more languages in April. Furthermore, only users of the iPhone 15 Pro, iPhone 15 Pro Max, and the forthcoming iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Pro can access the platform, potentially driving upgrades and sparking a fresh iPhone sales cycle.
Analysts expect Apple to report earnings per share (EPS) of $1.59 on revenue of $94.3 billion, up from last year's EPS of $1.46 on revenue of $89.4 billion during the same period. In terms of specific segments, iPhone sales are anticipated to bring in $45 billion, reflecting a 2.8% increase from Q4 2023. The Services business is forecasted to reach $25.2 billion, marking a 13% year-over-year rise.
The iPad segment is projected to grow by 9.7% to $7 billion, although wearables revenue is expected to decline by 1.6% to $9.1 billion. Apple's revenue from Greater China is predicted to rise 4.7% to $15.8 billion, a reversal from a 2.5% decline in the previous year.
The fourth quarter provides only a glimpse of the yearly sales performance of Apple's latest iPhone models, since they typically launch just weeks before the quarter ends. There are concerns regarding shorter wait times for the iPhone year-over-year, indicating potential supply or demand issues.
Adding to the uncertainty, TF International Securities' Ming-Chi Kuo reported a reduction in iPhone 16 orders by approximately 10 million units between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025. Without Apple's disclosure of total iPhone sales numbers, analysts rely on ancillary data to estimate unit sales.
Despite some apprehension, Barclays Equity Research's Tim Long suggests that late-cycle iPhone 15 growth and robust Services revenue could enable Apple to exceed Q4 expectations. Nonetheless, he cautions there may be more downside risk than upside potential to their projection of 79 million iPhone units sold in Q1.
Conversely, BofA Global Research analyst Wamsi Mohan is optimistic, predicting that iPhone demand will increase as Apple rolls out additional Apple Intelligence features. The next updates are set to include ChatGPT integration and Apple's Visual Intelligence, potentially spurring higher interest in new devices.