Chinese Economic Stimulus Measures Disappoint Investors' Expectations

https://icaro.icaromediagroup.com/system/images/photos/16367255/original/open-uri20241008-18-nsutad?1728406101
ICARO Media Group
News
08/10/2024 16h45

**China's Economic Measures Fall Short of Investor Expectations**

China's economic planning agency unveiled a set of measures on Tuesday aimed at stimulating the economy, but stopped short of rolling out substantial spending initiatives. Investors were left underwhelmed as the Shanghai benchmark index, which initially surged by 10% when markets reopened after a weeklong holiday, ultimately settled at a more modest 3% gain.

The head of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), Zheng Shanjie, announced that the government would expedite 100 billion yuan ($14.1 billion) in spending from the 2025 budget, along with an additional 100 billion yuan for construction projects. However, this spending falls significantly short compared to the multi-trillion yuan expenditures analysts had suggested might be necessary.

Despite maintaining that China is on course to achieve its annual economic growth target of about 5%, Zheng acknowledged the challenges posed by an increasingly "more complex and extreme" global environment. The Chinese economy has faced hurdles in its recovery post-COVID-19, with the property market downturn exacerbating issues as consumer spending remains weak and global demand wanes.

UBS chief China economist, Tao Wang, noted that the market was "likely expecting a significant fiscal stimulus." She suggested that a more feasible immediate package would fall between 1.5 to 2 trillion yuan ($210 billion to $280 billion), followed by another 2 to 3 trillion yuan ($280 billion to $420 billion) in 2025.

In efforts to revive the struggling property sector, China had previously introduced a monetary stimulus package in September, which included reductions in mortgage rates and lower reserve requirements for banks. These aggressive measures were aimed at revitalizing the property market and accelerating growth.

On Tuesday, the NDRC highlighted new steps focused on increasing investment and expenditure, as well as supporting small and medium-sized enterprises that face disadvantages when compared to large state-owned corporations. Zheng mentioned that comprehensive policy measures would be rolled out to stabilize the real estate market, though he did not provide specific details.

Regarding the stock market's volatility, he also promised a series of robust and effective actions to bolster the capital market, but stopped short of outlining any concrete plans.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

Related