As the dust settles after Election Day, the outcome of the "Bring Chicago Home" real estate transfer tax referendum remains uncertain. With 98% of precincts reporting as of Wednesday morning, results showed that 54% of voters, or 166,285 individuals, voted against the measure, while 46%, or 143,624 voters, supported it.

Despite the early setback, proponents of the referendum have vowed to continue fighting for its approval. In a statement, the advocacy group expressed disappointment with the preliminary results but emphasized their determination to address issues of displacement and inequality. The proposed ordinance, often referred to as the "mansion tax," aims to alter the current real estate transfer tax structure in Chicago. Currently, all property transfers are taxed at a rate of $3.75 per $500 of assessed value.

Under the proposed changes, the tax rate would become graduated. Properties valued under $1 million would see a reduction of 20% with a tax rate of $3 per $500. For properties valued between $1 million and $1.5 million, the tax rate would increase by 166.67% to $10 per $500. Lastly, any property value surpassing $1.5 million would face a substantial increase of 300%, with a tax rate of $15 per $500.

The revenue generated from the revised tax structure would be dedicated exclusively to providing support for individuals experiencing or at risk of homelessness. This includes funding for permanent affordable housing initiatives, capital costs of existing shelters, and providing beds and shelters during extreme weather conditions. Importantly, the funds would be accessible to all residents, regardless of their immigration status.

Supporters argue that the proposed changes would result in reduced transfer tax rates for 94% of properties in the city. However, opponents express concerns over the potential negative impact on commercial real estate transactions. They warn that higher taxes may discourage businesses from relocating to Chicago, especially as the city continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The results of the referendum may yet be influenced by the approximately 110,000 outstanding vote-by-mail ballots as of Tuesday morning. The Chicago Board of Elections will need to receive and count these ballots before the final outcome can be determined.

If the measure ultimately fails, it would likely be seen as a political blow to Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson, who supported the ordinance. Critics of Mayor Johnson believe that his handling of various crises, coupled with this setback, may further erode public confidence in his leadership.

In the event of the referendum's approval, the Chicago City Council would be responsible for drafting a final version of the ordinance. Once approved by the council, the ordinance would be sent to Mayor Brandon Johnson for the final sign-off. If successful, the changes would take effect on January 1, 2025, according to the draft ordinance.

As Chicago voters anxiously await the final results of this closely watched referendum, the future of real estate transfer taxes and their impact on homelessness initiatives hang in the balance.