BYU (Brigham Young University) is gearing up for its first road game of the season as they face SMU (Southern Methodist University). The Mustangs are strong favorites, as both SP+ and the betting line predict a tough challenge for the Cougars.

ESPN's predictive algorithm, SP+, gives BYU a 24% chance of victory, with an expected score of 35-24 in favor of the Mustangs. These projections align closely with the 11.5-point underdog status assigned to BYU at the start. The oddsmakers have set the over/under at 55, suggesting a final score close to the SP+ prediction.

FPI (Football Power Index), ESPN's official predictive algorithm, is slightly more conservative, giving BYU a 21% chance of pulling off an upset. To achieve this, the Cougars will need to focus on their defensive strategy.

SMU boasts an impressive nine-game winning streak at home, during which they have averaged a remarkable 53.9 points per game. However, it is important to note that the Mustangs have not faced a defense of BYU's caliber during this stretch.

Analyzing the defensive efficiency metrics of the teams SMU faced during their winning streak, it becomes evident that none of them ranked inside the top 75 in FEI (Fremeau Efficiency Index) defensive rankings. These statistics reveal BYU's opportunity to potentially disrupt SMU's offensive prowess.

Although BYU's defense faced some challenges in the 2023 season, the Cougars still managed to secure a respectable 51st ranking in defensive FEI. This indicates that they have the potential to present a formidable obstacle for the Mustangs' high-scoring offense.

As BYU prepares to take on SMU in their quest for an upset victory, all eyes will be on the defensive strategies employed by the Cougars. Can they effectively stifle an offense that has flourished against weaker opponents? Only time will tell as these two teams face off in what promises to be an exciting showdown on the field.