Bubble Watch: Key Matchups Determine NCAA Tournament Fate for Several Teams

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ICARO Media Group
Politics
13/03/2024 20h09

In a crucial day of college basketball action, Wednesday's slate of games holds significant implications for multiple teams on the bubble as they vie for a spot in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. Several conferences, including the ACC, Big East, Big 12, Mountain West, and Pac-12, will see teams battling it out in matchups that could make or break their postseason dreams.

In the ACC, Wake Forest, Syracuse, and Virginia Tech are still technically alive in the tournament race. While their Wednesday games may not move the needle significantly, victories would open up quarterfinal opportunities for each team. Wake Forest faces Pitt, a bubble team as well, while Syracuse takes on Duke, and Virginia Tech squares off against North Carolina.

The Big East presents a similar scenario for Villanova and Providence. The Wildcats are set to face Marquette in the quarterfinals if they can avoid slipping up against DePaul. Meanwhile, Providence must navigate past Georgetown to set up a crucial clash with Creighton.

Without a doubt, the Big 12 boasts the most captivating matchups of the day. The TCU Horned Frogs and the Oklahoma Sooners both find themselves in the 9-to-11 seed range, and a win for either team would solidify their case for an NCAA Tournament bid. Kansas State squares off against Texas, knowing that a deep run is essential to have a chance at entering the tournament. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has a golden opportunity to advance to the quarterfinals by taking on a banged-up Kansas squad.

In the Mountain West, New Mexico and Colorado State will be in action, although their games can only hurt their chances of securing a tournament bid. Utah, on the other hand, must defeat Arizona State in the Pac-12 Tournament to keep their slim at-large chances alive.

As teams fight to improve their resumes, it's essential to understand how the NCAA selection committee classifies wins based on the NET rating. Victories fall into different categories, such as Quad 1, Quad 1A, Quad 2, Quad 3, and Quad 4, depending on the ranking of the opponent and the location of the game.

With the NCAA Tournament selection approaching, all teams are aware of the importance of these matchups in their quest for a coveted spot in the field of 68. The projections for the tournament are based on games played through March 12, 2024.

As the action unfolds, here's a brief look at some of the teams fighting for inclusion in the tournament:

- Virginia: Closing their season with a strong win over Georgia Tech, Virginia sits at 8-9 in the top two quadrants, with two quality Quad 1 wins. A potential quarterfinal matchup with Clemson in the ACC Tournament provides an opportunity for a crucial victory.

- St. John's: After a narrow escape in their recent games against DePaul and Georgetown, the Red Storm remain in contention for a tournament spot. With three Quad 1 wins and nine victories in the top two quadrants, including a sweep of Villanova, they have a golden chance to solidify their case against Seton Hall.

- Indiana State: The Sycamores find themselves on the bubble, with all four team sheet metrics hovering around the 40th spot and a NET ranking of 29th. Despite only having one Quad 1 victory, Indiana State's performance against top mid-majors could potentially work in their favor as they await their fate.

- Texas A&M: Boasting an intriguing profile, the Aggies have accumulated five Quad 1 victories and an 11-9 record against the top two quadrants. However, their struggles in Quad 3 games, with a 2-4 record, have contributed to their 13 total losses. A win against Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament could bolster their chances.

- Colorado: The Buffaloes have secured impressive wins on the road, including notable Quad 1 victories against Washington and Oregon. With a relatively favorable comparison to other bubble teams, Colorado aims to maintain their consistent performance as they face either Utah or Arizona State in the upcoming tournament.

- New Mexico: Following a close loss to Utah State, the Lobos find themselves on the outside looking in. Despite six wins in the top two quadrants, New Mexico's road and neutral game victories fall mostly in Quad 3 and Quad 4. A chance for redemption against Air Force awaits them in the quarterfinals.

- Villanova: The Wildcats conclude their season with a pair of losses, and while they have racked up nine wins in the top two quadrants, three Quad 3 losses have dampened their chances. Their matchup against DePaul presents an opportunity to add to their win total and set up a crucial clash with Marquette.

- Iowa: Although Iowa finds themselves below the first three teams on the bubble, they still have a chance to make their case. With three Quad 1 wins and victories over Michigan State and Northwestern on the road, a win against Ohio State is essential for the Hawkeyes to get another shot at Illinois.

With numerous teams fighting for a limited number of spots, these matchups will undoubtedly be nerve-wracking. Teams like Pittsburgh and Providence are also considered for the first four out, highlighting the competitiveness and uncertainty surrounding the selection process.

As the college basketball world watches these critical games play out, the outcomes will have a profound impact on the final composition of the NCAA Tournament bracket.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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