### Climate Talks in Baku Address Looming Challenges as Planet Approaches Critical Warming Threshold

International climate negotiations in Baku, Azerbaijan this week are primarily grappling with the complexities of funding the transition to clean energy and adapting to climate change impacts. However, an urgent concern is the alarming proximity of global temperatures to the 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) warming limit established in the 2015 Paris Agreement. Recent scientific studies and international reports indicate that this critical threshold might soon be exceeded due to insufficient action on reducing fossil fuel emissions.

Richard Betts, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter in the UK, underscores the inevitability of surpassing the 1.5 C mark, attributing this to the global delays in implementing ambitious climate policies. Despite this sobering reality, Betts insists that breaching this limit should motivate more robust climate action to avoid further warming, likening it to the increased risks associated with speeding.

According to the World Meteorological Organization, 2024 is projected to be the first year with an average global temperature exceeding 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels, potentially reaching 1.55 C. Additionally, a study published in Nature Geoscience by UK researchers suggests that the Earth has already warmed by at least 1.39 C, with the possibility of hitting as much as 1.49 C since the 1700s.

The lack of a precise definition within the Paris Agreement on how to measure global temperature increases complicates the situation. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recommends assessing temperature rise over a 20-year period to mitigate the effects of natural year-to-year variability, including events such as El Niño. Using this approach, 2023 was found to be 1.31 C hotter compared to pre-industrial times.

Even though some methods of calculating temperature increases remain somewhat backward-looking, climate experts like Nathan Gillett of Environment and Climate Change Canada and Andrew Jarvis of Lancaster University emphasize the likelihood of exceeding the 1.5 C threshold within the next decade without more aggressive climate action.

Ryna Cui from the University of Maryland suggests that an "overshoot" scenario—where temperatures temporarily exceed 1.5 C before being reduced—is likely, given the current trajectory. However, she asserts that achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 could limit global warming to 1.7 or 1.8 C, leaving room for potential recovery to below 1.5 C.

The latest U.N. Emissions Gap report highlights that keeping warming below 1.5 C remains technically possible if global emissions decrease rapidly by 42% from 2019 levels by 2030. This would require a dramatic increase in renewable energy use, achieving 60% of global electricity from renewable sources by 2030—a target seen as ambitious but not impossible.

As negotiations continue in Baku, climate policy experts stress the need for realistic and aggressive actions in the upcoming Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). These country-level roadmaps are critical for outlining steps to cut greenhouse gas emissions over the next five years. The urgency of the situation demands decisive action to ensure that any temperature overshoot is as brief and minimal as possible.