Apple Faces Headwinds as iPhone Sales Decline, Services Business Thrives

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ICARO Media Group
News
16/06/2024 19h27

In a challenging market, Apple has reported a decline in iPhone sales as the 5G upgrade cycle concluded and faced competitive pressures and macroeconomic headwinds in China. Additionally, the post-pandemic market had a negative impact on Mac sales, while longer upgrade cycles and lack of compelling features contributed to a slump in iPad sales. The strong dollar further exacerbated these slowdowns over the past two years, making for a tough period for the tech giant.

However, amidst these challenges, Apple's services business has emerged as a consistent bright spot. At the end of the second quarter of fiscal 2024, the company announced that it served over a billion paid subscribers, reflecting double the number compared to four years ago. Apple has heavily relied on the growth of its services ecosystem to acquire more customers for its hardware devices.

Although iPhone sales slipped in the first half of fiscal 2024, this decline can mostly be attributed to currency headwinds. On a positive note, the company's services growth is once again on the rise, and its Mac sales are finally stabilizing. However, there is still a decline in iPad sales. Analysts predict a modest 1% increase in revenue and a 7% rise in earnings for the full year.

Bulls in the market expect Apple's revenue growth to accelerate in the second half of fiscal 2024, as iPhone and Mac sales rebound. They also anticipate further growth in the services segment, which could offset the company's other weaknesses. Although short-term sales growth may appear modest, Apple's strong financial position, with $162 billion in cash and equivalents, leaves room for investments, acquisitions, and share buybacks. Over the past decade, the company has bought back 36% of its shares, as its stock price rose by nearly 850%. This financial stability strengthens Apple's position as a safe-haven stock, even with a low forward dividend yield of 0.5%.

Looking ahead, Apple has potential growth drivers in its pipeline. The introduction of Apple Intelligence could enhance the stickiness of its ecosystem and facilitate the launch of new subscription-based services. Additionally, the Vision Pro could gain more traction in the market with the release of cheaper and lighter models, further bolstering the company's prospects. Overall, Apple remains an attractive long-term investment.

However, skeptics argue that Apple's business is maturing, and it faces regulatory challenges and an overvalued stock. As iPhones experience longer upgrade cycles, Apple must rely heavily on its services segment to compensate. Antitrust regulators in the U.S. and Europe have been scrutinizing Apple's services business, potentially weakening its control over developers and users.

Should antitrust challenges hinder the growth of Apple's services segment before iPhone and Mac sales stabilize, the company could face a protracted slowdown. Poor investment decisions or an excessive focus on buybacks may result in Apple being revalued as a slower-growth tech giant, similar to IBM. Consequently, some believe that Apple's current price-to-earnings ratio of 29 is too steep when compared to IBM's forward multiple of 17.

In conclusion, while Apple faces near-term challenges, it may not be the right time to sell the stock. The recent surge driven by artificial intelligence might also make it premature to chase the stock. Therefore, holding onto it if you already own it may be the best move for now.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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