Analyzing Tesla's Post-Election Surge Amid Investor Optimism and Shifting Market Perceptions
ICARO Media Group
**Tesla Shares Surge Post-Election Amid Investor Optimism**
Tesla's (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock has experienced a significant surge since the election win of Donald Trump, driven by investor expectations of the benefits the company might accrue under the new administration. UBS analyst Joseph Spak provides insight into this boost, suggesting that Elon Musk's clear support and prospective role in government have amplified investor confidence. "From a narrative perspective, especially if one were valuation agnostic, we get it," says Spak.
Following Trump's victory, specific policy proposals have emerged that appear beneficial to Tesla. Spak identifies several key points: the potential removal of electric vehicle (EV) consumer tax credits might disadvantage Tesla's U.S. competition more than it hinders Tesla itself, possibly widening Tesla's market lead over time. Moreover, the regulatory environment could become more favorable for ventures like robotaxis through a national autonomous vehicle (AV) framework. Additionally, scrutiny over Tesla’s Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (FSD) programs might decrease.
However, these points come with significant caveats. The removal of consumer tax credits is not solely positive for U.S. EV demand, which includes Tesla. While new models and refreshes may spark consumer interest, past efforts to stabilize demand through pricing adjustments, without the benefit of tax credits, have shown mixed results. This reality suggests that additional price cuts might be necessary, as indicated by recent incentives like Model Y lease reductions and offers of free Supercharging and FSD for North American customers.
Internationally, Tesla confronts strong competition in China, where rival models are becoming increasingly competitive. In Europe, automakers are expected to intensify their push toward electric vehicles in the coming year, further challenging Tesla’s market position.
On the robotaxi front, despite potential federal deregulatory moves seeming beneficial, the absence of stringent federal AV rules means any progress would still involve navigating the regulatory divide between states and the federal government. Additionally, technological challenges persist, delaying the viability of wide-scale robotaxi deployment. Spak acknowledges the continuous improvement in Tesla's FSD but maintains that it is not yet ready for extensive robotaxi use.
Given these dynamics, Spak advises investors to consider carefully the assumptions required to justify increasing their positions in Tesla at current stock levels. According to his valuation framework, Tesla's Auto and Energy segments are valued at around $52 per share. Therefore, the present stock price implies that Tesla's other ventures, such as AI, robotaxis, and Optimus, are collectively valued at approximately $1 trillion.
Spak concludes by emphasizing the shift in market perception, increasingly viewing Tesla as an AI player rather than just an EV manufacturer. Historically, when the value attributed to Tesla's auto business declines to around 17% of its share price, the stock tends to enter a downward trend.
Investors are encouraged to conduct their own analysis before making decisions, taking advantage of tools like TipRanks' Best Stocks to Buy for broader equity insights.