2024 Hurricane Season Expected to Break Records with Increased Outlook
ICARO Media Group
In a newly released outlook by Colorado State University (CSU), the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is projected to be one of the most active on record. The forecast has been revised to include an increase of two named storms, one hurricane, and one major hurricane, along with a surge of 20 Accumulated Cyclone Energy units, from 210 to 230.
CSU's tropical meteorology project team is anticipating a total of 25 storms, 12 of which are predicted to develop into hurricanes, with six reaching Category 3 status or stronger. These figures far exceed the 30-year average and the previous year's count of 20 storms, seven hurricanes, and three Category 3-plus hurricanes.
The outlook already incorporates the first three named storms of the season, including Hurricane Beryl, which raised concerns due to its early formation in the deep tropics. Typically, storms of this magnitude form during the heart of the hurricane season (August to October), indicating that the Atlantic is experiencing earlier-than-usual readiness.
Experts note that Beryl's duration and intensity make it a significant event, as it generated the highest Accumulated Cyclone Energy prior to August 1 in recorded history. Previous seasons with similar storms have proven to be above-average, with an average of 10 hurricanes.
The arrival of Hurricane Beryl and Tropical Storm Chris has placed the 2024 season several weeks ahead of schedule. On average, the third tropical storm doesn't form until August 3, followed by the fourth tropical storm on August 15. The first hurricane typically emerges on August 11, followed by the second hurricane near August 26.
Two primary factors contribute to this active hurricane season: the Atlantic's record warmth and the expected La Niña conditions. The Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and tropical Atlantic exhibit significantly warmer-than-average temperatures, which provide favorable conditions for stronger hurricanes. Additionally, the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts the development of La Niña in the equatorial eastern Pacific by the peak of the hurricane season. La Niña seasons are known to have less wind shear and rising, unstable air, creating a suitable environment for the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes.
The increased number of storms in the outlook suggests that the list of hurricane names for 2024 may be exhausted. Currently, there is a list of 21 Atlantic Basin names that repeat every six years, unless a name is retired due to its severity. If all names are used up this year, a supplemental names list will be utilized, starting with the name Adria. This situation has only occurred twice before in Atlantic hurricane history, during the seasons of 2005 and 2020.
2024 is already proving to be a record-breaking hurricane season, with its increased outlook projecting a multitude of storms. As experts continue to monitor conditions and developments, it is crucial for residents in hurricane-prone regions to remain prepared and vigilant throughout the season.
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