As college football prepares for an expanded playoff format in 2024, questions arise about whether top players will opt out of the games in pursuit of their NFL dreams. The prospect of playing up to 17 games in a season is causing some players, agents, and parents to consider the risk and potential financial impact of participating in the extended playoff.

With the 12-team playoff comes the possibility of four additional games, challenging players to balance their desire for a national championship with the potential risk to their health and future NFL careers. In a practice that has become increasingly common in recent years, players have chosen to sit out postseason bowl games, where participation is not directly compensated. This trend has raised concerns about the quality of the playoff games if top players opt out.

The issue of opting out became more pressing with the development of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) deals. While some reports have suggested substantial sums of money being raised to keep players out of the draft, experts argue that the financial benefits of participating in postseason games could be addressed in NIL agreements. However, the importance of protecting one's health and maximizing draft value makes the decision complex for players.

Insurance policies exist to cover potential financial losses due to injuries that could affect draft positioning. However, these policies may not fully compensate for the substantial earnings that players could miss out on if their draft stock falls due to injury. Examples such as Notre Dame linebacker Jaylon Smith, who suffered a significant knee injury in the Fiesta Bowl, serve as reminders of the financial risks involved.

While college football officials have expressed confidence that players will not opt out of the expanded playoff, discussions among stakeholders have acknowledged the potential impact of such decisions. The issue of player opt-outs has been a topic of conversation since star players like Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey made waves by sitting out bowl games in 2016. The shift to an expanded playoff format heightens the significance of the decision for players.

In the end, the choice to participate in the expanded playoff will likely be made by top NFL Draft prospects. The financial incentives, the pursuit of a national championship, and the desire to impress future NFL employers all factor into their decisions. While some coaches and players express confidence that opt-outs will be minimal, others acknowledge that the allure of protecting one's body and securing generational wealth may lead some players to choose otherwise.

The impact on the playoff itself could be significant if top players choose to opt out. The absence of key stars could affect ticket sales, television ratings, and the overall excitement surrounding the games. Efforts to include performance-based language in NIL agreements and contractual obligations may be considered to address these concerns.

As the college football landscape evolves and discussions continue, the dilemma of player opt-outs in an expanded playoff remains a significant topic of debate. The decisions made by top players will undoubtedly shape the future of the sport and impact the overall competitiveness and prestige of the expanded College Football Playoff.